Presidential Election Part I
For the first time in a while, Utah was a competitive state for the Presidential race. From KBYU/Utah Colleges Exit Poll data, we project that Donald Trump will take the state by a narrow margin of 38% to 33%. Evan McMullan also garnered 22% of the vote as an Independent candidate.
Many have speculated that Trump has a “Mormon Problem”, where Mormons who are typically Republican voters, did not want to vote for him. While this may not have stopped him from narrowly winning the state, only 61% of Republicans voted for their nominee. This is significantly down from the previous election cycles: Romney, a favorite in Utah, got 96% of the Republican vote in 2012 and McCain in 2008 got 90%. Donald Trump got a third less support from Republicans than his Republican predecessors.
Interestingly, most voters did not know how to vote until a few days before the election or even the day of the election. Over 50% of those that voted for McMullin decided to do so on within a few days of the election. This was a factor in the incredibly long lines counties saw on Election day. Voters really seemed not to like either of the major party candidates. Of those that voted for Trump, only half were voting for him while half were voting against his opponent, Hillary Clinton. It seems that in Utah, voters, especially Republican voters, did not know how to vote. That is why we had a very close Presidential race: 38% to Trump, 33% to Clinton, and 22% to McMullan.
Presidential vote by party Identification
Vote Among Strong Republican Very Active Mormons
Among strong Republicans who are very active or active and very Active Mormons Did this Influence your vote some or a lot?
Presidential vote by candidate voters thought would win
Vote mostly for one candidate or against another candidate?
Cruz supporters in the Primary
Sanders supporters in the Primary